ZIMBABWE'S PROSPECTS

Despite elections being due this year along with a new constitution, the current political and economic situation in Zimbabwe is unlikely to change

The phenomenon of the power-sharing government has, in recent years, become a feature of African politics. In the Kenyan presidential election of 2007, no clear winner was declared in the race between incumbent Mwai Kibaki and his rival, Raila Odinga, amidst allegations of rigging. After a year of post-election violence, a government of national unity was agreed upon and formed, with Kibaki as president, Odinga as prime minister, and members of both parties filling a cabinet of nearly 50 ministers and 47 deputy ministers.

In that same year, Robert Mugabe faced the prospect of being voted out of power after ruling Zimbabwe for nearly 30 years. The first round of election results showed that Morgan Tsvangirai was the clear winner, but had failed to get more than 50 per cent of the vote in order to avoid a presidential run-off. The run-off vote was initiated on the back of a brutal political crackdown, which saw thousands of people beaten, killed and raped by state security forces. Tsvangirai's decision to withdraw from the second run-off allowed Mugabe to win outright and cause a year-long political deadlock, which eventually resulted in the Southern African Development Community brokering a government of national unity, with Tsvangirai as prime minister and Mugabe as president.

An unfortunate situation

Two years later, and the coalition government faces a fork in the road. Elections are due soon, along with a referendum over a new constitution that has yet to be drafted. In spite of this, little has changed in terms of the political system or the economy. Basic amenities such as fuel are scarce, and the cost of living has gone up exponentially. The country continues to rely on imports from South Africa and China. Violence between supporters of Mugabe's ZANU-PF party and the Movement for Democratic Change is still widespread. And what complicates this particular matter is that ZANU-PF ministers hold most of the security related portfolios, meaning that the state security forces are largely loyal to Mugabe, and thus often turn a blind eye to violence against MDC supporters.

What next?

From this, it seems that the situation is very much doom and gloom. And unfortunately, that is the way it is. Many commentators fear political-related civilian warfare will descend upon Zimbabwe come next elections, as it did in 2008. All the indicators certainly seem to point to this conclusion. Some are even holding out on Mugabe dying. Depressingly, even this will not solve the problem. In the event of Mugabe's death, it is likely that the army, the air force and other sectors of state security, all comprising of ZANU-PF loyalists, will assume de facto control of the government in the event of Mugabe's death.

                                           Robert Mugabe, image found here

A glimmer of hope could be seen in the very north of the continent. Tsvangirai himself alluded to the Egyptian and Tunisian protests, saying that it was possible in Zimbabwe to wage a similar campaign of mass demonstrations. The minister of defence, in kind, responded that those who wished to emulate the protests would be punished. Nothing is impossible, as the people of Egypt and Tunisia showed. But unfortunately for the time being, the average Zimbabwean is forced to accept that the prospects for Zimbabwe, unlike Egypt and Tunisia, are very bleak indeed.